Imagine waking up to a world where the U.S. dollar (USD), the bedrock of global finance, has collapsed. This scenario may seem far-fetched, but it's a narrative often found on dubious platforms pushing gold, crypto, and extremist political views, and it occasionally creeps into mainstream discourse. The greenback has always had its external foes during the long period of its dominance—from the communist bloc and anti-colonialists to contemporary adversaries like China, Russia, and other emerging powers. Meanwhile, critics argue that mounting inflation, the rising U.S. federal deficit, and government entitlements could bring down the USD's dominance from within.
Given the ever-present economic and political uncertainty of geopolitics, pundits have predicted the dollar's collapse ever since the greenback gained worldwide supremacy. They've been wrong each time—though a prognosticator needs to be right just once to gain fame in financial circles. Nevertheless, we shouldn't be too sanguine: history shows that even the sturdiest of human edifices crumble, becoming ruins future generations barely notice as they trammel them underfoot.
To be clear, there are no such signs on the horizon. While about a fifth of the foreign currency reserves of the world's central banks have moved away over the last quarter century, from 71% to 58%, that's still a dominant position of strength for the greenback worldwide, let alone as a worthwhile currency within the U.S. In this article, we'll explore the calamitous coincidence of events needed to dethrone the dollar, examining historical precedents, contemporary vulnerabilities, and potential scenarios.
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